U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's presentation to the UN Security Council on February 5 wasn't likely to win over anyone not already on his side. He ignored the crucial fact that in the past several days (in Sunday's New York Times and in his February 4th briefing of UN journalists) Hans Blix denied key components of Powell's claims.

Blix, who directs the UN inspection team in Iraq, said the UNMOVIC inspectors have seen "no evidence" of mobile biological weapons labs, has "no persuasive indications" of Iraq-al Qaeda links, and no evidence of Iraq hiding and moving material used for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) either outside or inside Iraq. Dr. Blix also said there was no evidence of Iraq sending scientists out of the country, of Iraqi intelligence agents posing as scientists, of UNMOVIC conversations being monitored, or of UNMOVIC being penetrated.

Further, CIA and FBI officials still believe the Bush administration is "exaggerating" information to make their political case for war. Regarding the alleged Iraqi link with al Qaeda, U.S. intelligence officials told the New York Times, "we just don't think it's there."

The most compelling part of Powell's presentation was his brief ending section on the purported al Qaeda link with Iraq and on the dangers posed by the al Zarqawi network. However, he segued disingenuously from the accurate and frightening information about what the al Zarqawi network could actually do with biochemical materials to the not-so-accurate claim about its link with Iraq--which is tenuous and unproven at best.

A key component of the alleged Iraq-al Qaeda link is based on what Powell said "detainees tell us…". That claim must be rejected. On December 27 the Washington Post reported that U.S. officials had acknowledged detainees being beaten, roughed up, threatened with torture by being turned over to officials of countries known to practice even more severe torture. In such circumstances, nothing "a detainee" says can be taken as evidence of truth given that people being beaten or tortured will say anything to stop the pain. Similarly, the stories of defectors cannot be relied on alone, as they have a self-interest in exaggerating their stories and their own involvement to guarantee access to protection and asylum.

In his conclusion, Powell said, "We wrote 1441 not in order to go to war, we wrote 1441 to try to preserve the peace." It is certainly at least partially true that the UN resolution was an effort to "preserve the peace," although it is certainly not true that the U.S. wrote 1441 to preempt war. Rather, the Bush administration intended that the resolution would serve as a first step toward war.

Finally, the "even if" rule applies. "Even if" everything Powell said was true, there is simply not enough evidence for war. There is no evidence of Iraq posing an imminent threat, no evidence of containment not working. Powell is asking us to go to war--risking the lives of 100,000 Iraqis in the first weeks, hundreds or thousands of U.S. and other troops, and political and economic chaos--because he thinks MAYBE in the future Iraq might rebuild its weapons systems and MIGHT decide to deploy weapons or MIGHT give those weapons to someone else who MIGHT use them against someone we like or give them to someone else who we don't like, and other such speculation. Nothing that Powell said should alter the position that we should reject a war on spec.

(Phyllis Bennis <pbennis@compuserve.com> is a Fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies and director of IPS' New Internationalism Project (online at www.ips-dc.org). She is a Middle East analyst for FPIF (online at www.fpif.org).)

U.N. ACTION
France's UN mission is BEGGING US citizens to flood their offices and the other UN offices with emails to STOP the WAR.  France and the other UN Security Council countries need to know that Americans are with them on this.  Below, are the UN email addresses, and a few sample messages for the Security Council members.

Even though you may have done so before, PLEASE wrote them again now and forward this email widely.

CONTACT INFO FOR MEMBERS OF SECURITY COUNCIL
(Ambassador's name, email address and fax number)

H.E. Ambassador M. Jean-Marc de la Sabliere
france-presse@un.int
(212) 207-9765

H.E. Ambassador Mr. Sergei Lavrov
rusun@un.int
(212) 628-0252

H.E. Ambassador Wang Yingfan
chinamission_un@fmprc.gov.cn
(212) 634-7626

H.E. Ambassador Dr. Gunter Pleuger
contact@germany-un.org
(212) 940-0402

H.E. Ambassador Inocencio F. Arias
spain@spainun.org
(212) 682-4460

H.E. Ambassador Sir Jeremy Greenstock
uk@un.int
(212) 745-9316

H.E. Ambassador Mr. Stefan Tafrov
bulgaria@un.int
(212) 472-9865

H.E. Ambassador Martin Belinga Eboutou
info@cameroonmission.org
(212) 249-0533

H.E. Ambassador M. Francois Lonseny Fall
guinea@un.int
(212) 687-8248

H. E. Amnbassador Adolfo Aguilar Zi-nser
mexico@un.int
(212) 688-8862

H.E. Ambassador Dr. Mikha'il Wahbi
syria@un.int
(212) 983-4439

H.E. Ambassador Dr. Ismael Gaspar Martins
ginasensi@yahoo.com (temporary e-mail)
(212) 861-9295

H.E. Ambassador Juan Gabriel Valdes
chile@un.int
(212) 832-0236

H.E. Ambassador Munir Akram
Pakistan@un.int
(212) 744-7348

SAMPLE MESSAGES FOR AMBASSADORS
(In the subject line, write "Message for the Ambassador"):

1. This sample is appropriate for France, Germany, Russia, and China each of which opposes the US rush to war (France, Russia and China, as permanent members of the Security Council, hold veto power.  Germany is SC president for February.)
To: His Excellency Ambassador Mr. ______________________
From: (Your name)

Dear Mr. Ambassador:

I hope you will hold firm in your opposition to the reckless determination of the government of my country to rush headlong into war, a war which would have disastrous results for the people of Iraq, the people of the United States and for all humanity. I and many others stand with you for sanity.

 Sincerely,
[your name]

2.  This sample is appropriate for the UK and Spain which supports the US position.
To: His Excellency Ambassador ______________
From: [Your name]

Dear Mr. Ambassador:

I hope your government will change its position of supporting the reckless determination of the government of my country to rush headlong into war, a war which would have disastrous results for the people of Iraq, the people of the United States and for all humanity. I and many others here in the United States and throughout the world stand  in opposition to the misguided policy of the government of the United States.

Sincerely,
[Your name}

3. This sample is appropriate for all other members countries listed.
To: His Excellency Ambassador _________________
From: [Your name]

Dear Mr. Ambassador:

I hope you will take a position in opposition to the reckless determination
of the government of my country to rush headlong into war, a war which
would have disastrous results for the people of Iraq, the people of the
United States and for all humanity. I and many others will stand with you
in opposing the misguided policy of the government of my country.

 Sincerely,
[Your name]